Thursday, March 15, 2012

China NOT "Desperately" dependent on US export market

Standard arguments offered by a number of people I've spoken with, about mythically magical "World Reserve Currency" status of US Dollar staying protected are as follows:
  • China is more desperately dependent on propping up "World Reserve Currency" status of US Dollar than the US. China is desperately dependent on US export market, basically keeping their strong manufacturing sector pumping goods. Due to this dependence, there is NO WAY China could even remotely entertain prospect of stopping purchase of US Treasuries, or heaven forbid....dumping them! Debasement of US Dollar would hurt China, even more than it would hurt American population.
  • When Soviet Union collapsed due to mischievous militarism in Afghanistan (as the last straw that broke camel's back), their currency collapse situation was very different than anything US could ever be faced with. Basicallly, big nations of Russia, Ukraine had no big importing consumption market. They were bunch of closed, isolated markets. No major economies outside Soviet Union really gave a hoot about whether their currency collapsed. You cannot possibly draw a parallel with the American situation there. US is the biggest economy in the world, the biggest consumer market and that will forever protect "reserve currency" status of US Dollar.
Here are critical refutals of these points:
  • There is a fundamental point about China being missed here. China is now a strong consumption economy in their own right. For argument's sake, let's ignore their exports to other big economies. (For example economies in doldrums like Europe, Japan; or even emerging economies like India, Brazil.) On their own accord, they are a major economy themselves! If push comes to shove, if a global military conflict really pinned them in the corner; China will not hesitate to pull a retaliatory trigger and send US Dollar into panic. They will still be able to manage their affairs, albeit through difficulties under such scenraio.
  • Soviet Union were forced to wisen up due to the natural balancing act of financial markets. Actually, it even led to their deserved disintegration! After shooting themselves in the foot with unwarranted militarism in Afghanistan, there was no magical banker bailout which could've kept Soviet Ruble alive. US has already outspent itself with unconstitutional militarism in Iraq. Nobody other than the Military Industrial Complex knows why US is still outspending by occupying Afghanistan. Haven't they learnt the lesson on what it did to the Soviets? Over and above this, back home the implosion of real estate market, shaky banking sector and unconstitutional bailout of private banks with taxpayer money - those by themselves would be strong catalysts for currency debasement to any strong economy. As if this entire fiasco is not enough, the Military Industrial Complex is still not done with its hunger for militarism and unconstitutional war profits! Through strong media and political propaganda, all motions are set for military conflict against Iran, a country that hasn't attacked the US. This is like a perfect recipe for doom. Just as the Soviet currency was humbled due to natural forces of markets, further belligerent militarism spending will set up US Dollar against the same market forces - its biggest nemesis. Just by uttering phrases like "Shining City on the Hill" or "American Exceptionalism" or standing in the middle of a street with puffed chest screaming "USA! USA!! USA!!!" isn't magically going to undo fundamental economic principles.

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